Past voter turnout 2018 election - NJ7 Citizens for Change

What Past Voter Turn-Out Teaches us about the 2018 Midterms

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As we head into 2018, we in the Resistance should all be thankful for the strength and resiliency of the movement in New Jersey Congressional District Seven. Our marching and candlelight vigils at Lance's offices, our rallies at his town halls, and our phone calls and emails have put Leonard "I'm-not-a-moderate-but-I-play-one-on-TV" Lance on notice that we are watching him closely and will not let him misrepresent our district without a vigorous fight. And with the 2018 midterms less than a year away, we have to strategize our path to unseat him. With that in mind, here is some instructive data from the last several Congressional elections.

Lance's Margin of Victory Has Leveled Off to 36,000 Votes.

Leonard Lance has won the last two election cycles (2014 and 2016) by ~36,000 votes each time. This is a decline from 2012 when Lance defeated Chivikula by ~52,000 votes.

Democratic Participation Dropped off in the 2014 Midterm Election by 59,000 Votes.

Democratic turnout in our Congressional District dropped 47% from the 2012 presidential elections to the 2014 midterm elections. That's 59,000 Democrats that voted in 2012 during Obama's re-election then did not bother to vote in the 2014 midterms.

Did anyone notice that 59,000 Democrats > 36,000 Lance's recent margins of victory? Yes, one way to close the gap to Lance is to get out the vote among Democrats that voted in 2016.

So where are the Democrats in NJ7? 

Municipalities with most Democratic voters in 2016

 

Rank
County
Municipality
Democratic voters
1.
Somerset
Bridgewater
9,367
2.
Somerset
Hillsborough
8,832
3.
Union
Westfield
7,500
4.
Union
Union
6,575
5.
Union
Scotch Plains
6,139
6.
Union
Cranford
5,909
7.
Somerset
Montgomery
5,637
8.
Somerset
Bernards Twp
5,301
9.
Union
Summit
5,159
10.
Essex
Millburn
4,945
11.
Morris
Mount Olive
4,779
12.
Somerset
North Plainfield
4,531
13.
Hunterdon
Raritan Twp
4,282
14.
Union
Springfield
4,049
15.
Morris
Roxbury
3,860

 

Municipalities with greatest midterm turnout declines from 2012 to 2014, by %

Some of the biggest Democratic strongholds in NJ7 experienced some of the greatest midterm drop-offs. The median for the district at the last midterms (2014) was a whopping 47%.

Rank
County
Municipality
% midterm drop-off
1.
Union
Union
84%
2.
Union
Scotch Plains
70%
3.
Morris
Dover
59%
4.
Warren
Phillipsburgh
58%
5.
Morris
Mount Olive
55%
6.
Somerset
Millstone
55%
7.
Union
Winfield
55%
8.
Warren
Pohatcong
53%
9.
Warren
Alpha
53%
10.
Morris
Wharton
51%
11.
Somerset
Branchburg
50%
12.
Somerset
Bridgewater
50%
13.
Somerset
Hillsborough
50%
14.
Morris
Netcong
50%
15.
Warren
Greenwich
50%

 

Municipalities with greatest midterm turnout declines from 2012 to 2014, by # of votes

 

Rank
County
Municipality
# midterm drop-off
1.
Union
Union
7,535
2.
Somerset
Bridgewater
3,957
3.
Somerset
Hillsborough
3,677
4.
Union
Westfield
2,852
5.
Somerset
Montgomery
2,165
6.
Morris
Mount Olive
2,080
7.
Union
Cranford
1,875
8.
Somerset
Bernards
1,864
9.
Somerset
North Plainfield
1,838
10.
Hunterdon
Raritan Twp
1,725
11.
Union
Summit
1,696
12.
Essex
Millburn
1,495
13.
Morris
Roxbury
1,460
14.
Morris
Dover
1,417
15.
Union
Springfield
1,204

 

Mid-Term Democratic Voter Drop-Off Exceeded Lance’s Margin of Victory.

Add up the midterm drop-off for these fifteen municipalities and you get…drum roll…nearly 37,000 votes, just north of Lance's margin of victory in 2016. 

What We Need to Do:

It's unlikely that we'll get 0% drop-off in these fifteen municipalities though, so we need to work to reduce midterm drop-off all across the district if we want to defeat Lance in November.

We in the Resistance know how important this midterm is. Our challenge is convincing our Democratic and left-leaning moderate family and friends that it is important enough to vote inNovember. And make no mistake - that is a big challenge. Voter registration and get out the vote drives will be key.

Source of Data: New Jersey Data Book(SM)  Rutgers Center for Government Services, New Brunswick, NJ

 

 John M Flores is a digital marketing consultant and volunteer for NJ7 Citizens for Change

 


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